Category: singularity

Thoughts on Happiness (1) [Happiness Sequence, Part 2]

[Previously: Happy by Habit] This is a collection of thoughts on how to become happier. The first 2 parts are mostly focused on cognitive habits that I’ve found useful. That means I’m not talking about obvious stuff like regular exercise, good diet, enough sleep, socializing with friends, having healthy relationships and keeping the cocaine to a

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate: Probability Estimates

[Epistemic note: This is an old post and so not necessarily accurate anymore.] I list some facts that need to be true in order for AI FOOM to be possible. I also add my estimates of how probable these statements are. Obviously, I pulled these numbers out of thin air – but it’s better than

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate Conclusion: Post 50 – 52

50. What Core Argument? (Hanson) Hanson asks again for Yudkowsky’s core argument(s) and lists his objections. Firstly, it must be said that most AI-researchers and growth-economists consider Yudkowksy’s Foom-scenario to be very unlikely. Which of course doesn’t mean much if you believe the world is mad. He also thinks that the small differences in brain

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate: Post 46 – 49

46. Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc. (Yudkowsky) First, a good illustration of the conjunction bias by Robyn Dawes: “In their summations lawyers avoid arguing from disjunctions in favor of conjunctions.  (There are not many closing arguments that end, “Either the defendant was in severe financial straits and murdered the decedent to prevent his embezzlement from being exposed

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate: Post 41 – 45

41. Shared AI Wins (Hanson) Hanson thinks Yudkowsky’s theories about AI-design are pipe-dreams: The idea that you could create human level intelligence by just feeding raw data into the right math-inspired architecture is pure fantasy.  You couldn’t build an effective cell or ecosystem or developed economy or most any complex system that way either –

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate: Post 35 – 40

35. Underconstrained Abstractions (Yudkowsky) Yudkowsky replies to Hanson’s post “Test Near, Apply Far”. When possible, I try to talk in concepts that can be verified with respect to existing history. …But in my book this is just one trick in a library of methodologies for dealing with the Future, which is, in general, a hard

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate: Post 32 – 34

32. Hard Takeoff (Yudkowsky) Natural selection produced roughly linear improvements in human brains. Unmodified human brains produced roughly exponential improvements in knowledge on the object level (bridges, planes, cars, etc ). So it’s unlikely that with the advent of recursively self-improving superintelligence the speed of progress won’t change much. …to try and compress it down

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate: Post 29 – 31

29. I Heart CYC (Hanson) Hanson endorses CYC, an AI-project headed by Doug Lenat, the inventor of EURISKO. The lesson Lenat took from EURISKO is that architecture is overrated;  AIs learn slowly now mainly because they know so little.  So we need to explicitly code knowledge by hand until we have enough to build systems

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate: Post 23 – 28

23. Total Nano Domination (Yudkowsky) What happens when nanotechnology or WBE become possible? …the real point of this essay is to illustrate a point more important than nanotechnology: as optimizers become more self-swallowing, races between them are more unstable. Meaning, that with full-fledged nanotechnology you wouldn’t need a supply chain anymore, you could produce literally

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Category: singularity

AI Foom Debate: Post 20 – 22

20. …Recursion, Magic (Yudkowsky) Recursion is probably the most difficult part of this topic.  We have historical records aplenty of cascades, even if untangling the causality is difficult.  Cycles of reinvestment are the heartbeat of the modern economy.  An insight that makes a hard problem easy, is something that I hope you’ve experienced at least

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