Category: CEV

Thoughts on Happiness (1) [Happiness Sequence, Part 2]

[Previously: Happy by Habit] This is a collection of thoughts on how to become happier. The first 2 parts are mostly focused on cognitive habits that I’ve found useful. That means I’m not talking about obvious stuff like regular exercise, good diet, enough sleep, socializing with friends, having healthy relationships and keeping the cocaine to a

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Category: CEV

In Praise of Maximizing – With Some Caveats

Most of you are probably familiar with the two contrasting decision making strategies “maximizing” and “satisficing“, but a short recap won’t hurt (you can skip the first two paragraphs if you get bored): Satisficing means selecting the first option that is good enough, i.e. that meets or exceeds a certain threshold of acceptability. In contrast, maximizing

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Category: CEV

3. Epistemic Viciousness – 6. Tolerate Tolerance

3. Epistemic Viciousness Many martial arts gurus would totally lose in real fights. Some of the reasons why this can happen: The art, the dojo, and the sensei are seen as sacred.  “Having red toe-nails in the dojo is like going to church in a mini-skirt and halter-top…  The students of other martial arts are

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Category: CEV

Fun Theory: Post 11 – 13

11. Nonperson Predicates There is a subproblem of Friendly AI which is so scary that I usually don’t talk about it… …This is the problem that if you create an AI and tell it to model the world around it, it may form models of people that are people themselves.  Not necessarily the same person,

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Category: CEV

AI Foom Debate Conclusion: Post 50 – 52

50. What Core Argument? (Hanson) Hanson asks again for Yudkowsky’s core argument(s) and lists his objections. Firstly, it must be said that most AI-researchers and growth-economists consider Yudkowksy’s Foom-scenario to be very unlikely. Which of course doesn’t mean much if you believe the world is mad. He also thinks that the small differences in brain

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Category: CEV

AI Foom Debate: Post 46 – 49

46. Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc. (Yudkowsky) First, a good illustration of the conjunction bias by Robyn Dawes: “In their summations lawyers avoid arguing from disjunctions in favor of conjunctions.  (There are not many closing arguments that end, “Either the defendant was in severe financial straits and murdered the decedent to prevent his embezzlement from being exposed

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Category: CEV

AI Foom Debate: Post 41 – 45

41. Shared AI Wins (Hanson) Hanson thinks Yudkowsky’s theories about AI-design are pipe-dreams: The idea that you could create human level intelligence by just feeding raw data into the right math-inspired architecture is pure fantasy.  You couldn’t build an effective cell or ecosystem or developed economy or most any complex system that way either –

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Category: CEV

AI Foom Debate: Post 35 – 40

35. Underconstrained Abstractions (Yudkowsky) Yudkowsky replies to Hanson’s post “Test Near, Apply Far”. When possible, I try to talk in concepts that can be verified with respect to existing history. …But in my book this is just one trick in a library of methodologies for dealing with the Future, which is, in general, a hard

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Category: CEV

AI Foom Debate: Post 32 – 34

32. Hard Takeoff (Yudkowsky) Natural selection produced roughly linear improvements in human brains. Unmodified human brains produced roughly exponential improvements in knowledge on the object level (bridges, planes, cars, etc ). So it’s unlikely that with the advent of recursively self-improving superintelligence the speed of progress won’t change much. …to try and compress it down

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Category: CEV

AI Foom Debate: Post 23 – 28

23. Total Nano Domination (Yudkowsky) What happens when nanotechnology or WBE become possible? …the real point of this essay is to illustrate a point more important than nanotechnology: as optimizers become more self-swallowing, races between them are more unstable. Meaning, that with full-fledged nanotechnology you wouldn’t need a supply chain anymore, you could produce literally

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