Category: Inside View vs. Outside View

AI Foom Debate: Probability Estimates

[Epistemic note: This is an old post and so not necessarily accurate anymore.] I list some facts that need to be true in order for AI FOOM to be possible. I also add my estimates of how probable these statements are. Obviously, I pulled these numbers out of thin air – but it’s better than

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Category: Inside View vs. Outside View

AI Foom Debate Conclusion: Post 50 – 52

50. What Core Argument? (Hanson) Hanson asks again for Yudkowsky’s core argument(s) and lists his objections. Firstly, it must be said that most AI-researchers and growth-economists consider Yudkowksy’s Foom-scenario to be very unlikely. Which of course doesn’t mean much if you believe the world is mad. He also thinks that the small differences in brain

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Category: Inside View vs. Outside View

AI Foom Debate: Post 41 – 45

41. Shared AI Wins (Hanson) Hanson thinks Yudkowsky’s theories about AI-design are pipe-dreams: The idea that you could create human level intelligence by just feeding raw data into the right math-inspired architecture is pure fantasy.  You couldn’t build an effective cell or ecosystem or developed economy or most any complex system that way either –

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Category: Inside View vs. Outside View

AI Foom Debate: Post 23 – 28

23. Total Nano Domination (Yudkowsky) What happens when nanotechnology or WBE become possible? …the real point of this essay is to illustrate a point more important than nanotechnology: as optimizers become more self-swallowing, races between them are more unstable. Meaning, that with full-fledged nanotechnology you wouldn’t need a supply chain anymore, you could produce literally

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Category: Inside View vs. Outside View

AI Foom Debate: Post 7 – 10

7. The First World Takeover (Yudkowsky) A really beautiful post about the origin of life from a “optimization-process-perspective”. Before Robin and I move on to talking about the Future, it seems to me wise to check if we have disagreements in our view of the Past. The first 9 Billion years after the Big Bang

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Category: Inside View vs. Outside View

393. Surface Analogies and Deep Causes – 394. Optimization and the Singularity

393. Surface Analogies and Deep Causes Yudkowsky warnt vor der Außenansicht. Nur weil Dinge prima facie einige Ähnlichkeiten aufweisen, bedeutet das nicht, dass sie auch in anderer Hinsicht gleich sind. Besser ist es, die kausale Struktur der Phänomene zu entschlüsseln, d.h. zu erklären,warumdie Dinge sind, wie sie sind. 394. Optimization and the Singularity Kurze Vorschau

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Category: Inside View vs. Outside View

392. The Outside View’s Domain

392. The Outside View’s Domain Wann sollte man die “Außenannsicht” (Outside-View), wann die “Innenansicht” (Inside-View) anwenden? Die Außenansicht scheint gut geeignet, um z.B. Planungs-Fehler zu korrigieren. Wenn ein Student beispielsweise sagt, dass er diesmal ganz sicher seine Hausaufgaben pünktlich abgeben wird, er dies aber bei den letzten 20 Hausaufgaben nie geschafft hat, sollte man eher

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